# Canton Coin (CC): Research Notes and Limitations

Hayabusa Research. Version 1.0. Research cutoff October 18, 2026.

## What This Underwriting Establishes

The article is suitable for publication as a bounded public-data investment assessment. Its WATCH conclusion does not depend on a verified intrinsic valuation. It does not certify the complete ledger, institution-specific fees, customer funding or today's saleable supply.

Primary documents establish the documented economic mechanisms. Company filings provide dated, entity-specific evidence. Third-party figures are expressly attributed and provisional. Derived figures inherit the quality of their inputs.

## Evidence Trail

The CSV ledger links each material claim to source URLs, periods, capture timestamps, archived-response identifiers and SHA-256 hashes. The internal archive retains raw HTTP responses, parsed text and request metadata, including failures. For CCView's monthly report and Tradeweb's filing, direct HTTP retrieval returned 403 while the web tool provided parsed content. Those captures are identified as parsed web results, not original HTTP payloads.

The market reference is the CCTools page observation at October 18, 19:07 UTC. Other dashboard panels have different timestamps. We do not pretend they represent one synchronous ledger snapshot.

The public reader package contains the article, notes, ledger and workbook. The separately retained internal archive contains source captures and revision history. Archived publisher content is retained for evidence review, not offered as a substitute for the publishers' sites.

## How to Read the September Numbers

CCView reports 645.8M minted and 442.6M burned. Both are rounded. Subtraction gives 203.2M net minted, and division gives 68.5% burn coverage. Its separately displayed 203.22M net figure is compatible with rounding; we do not claim the extra precision.

Those figures have not been independently replayed. A source can contain a correct total and a misleading adjacent chart; the unresolved annotations are a reason to qualify the figures, not grounds to silently replace them.

The $48.8M traffic-purchase figure is retained in the source inputs, not used as earnings or a cash-flow valuation numerator. The report's method converts purchased traffic with a daily volume-weighted market price. That is distinct from the protocol's round conversion price, prepaid capacity actually consumed, and customer cash ultimately funding it. A consistent USD series would require those bases to be reconciled.

Holding mint fixed, the reported CC burn would need to rise by approximately 45.9% to match it: 645.8 / 442.6 − 1. This is a coin-count comparison. It is not a forecast of the percentage growth needed in customer-dollar revenue, because prices, fee schedules, mint eligibility and the mix of burns can change.

## Excluded or Restricted Claims

**Network-wide locks.** The September report shows 18.4B locked with accompanying 18.9% and approximately $700K annotations. Relative to its own 39.65B circulating-supply figure, 18.4B would be about 46.4%. We cannot identify a defensible correction from the source. The aggregate is excluded from the model, and the article instead uses a dated Tradeweb disclosure without extrapolation.

**Application concentration.** The top app's 184.79M CC and 42.7% share imply an app pool around 432.8M CC. A caption stating app rewards are 72.8% of a pool would imply 470.1M if that pool meant the report's 645.8M total mint. These may have different scopes. The denominator remains unresolved, so we do not combine the panels into an audited concentration measure.

**Burn divided by app rewards.** CCTools' current ratio uses application rewards, not all newly minted CC. Its near-one ratio is not evidence of network-wide supply neutrality. Nominal reward allowances are also not the same as actual claimed minting.

**A 100B lifetime cap.** This conflicts with Canton's own explanation of uncapped issuance. We use no lifetime-cap FDV or invented terminal supply. We also do not adopt the supply blog's illustrative long-term outcomes as forecasts.

**The former price range and “coverage price.”** The v0.2 watch range of $0.065–$0.08 was not derived from defensible intrinsic value and is retired. Dividing the traffic-dollar estimate by minted CC produces a mechanical ratio, not a valuation floor. It does not establish holder cash yield or a price the market must converge to.

**Institutional asset notional.** Assets eligible for tokenization, outstanding tokenized value and transaction face value are not Global Synchronizer fees. No revenue multiple is applied to such totals. DTCC's July work involved Canton and private Besu; exclusive adoption is not assumed.

## Locking: Rules, Balances and Enforcement

CIP-0105 links SV reward weight to commitments measured against lifetime rewards, with multiple tiers and changes over time. It prescribes a linear 1/365.25 daily unlock schedule and ends the requirement 30 days after the next halving under the stated framework. That is not a perpetual lock.

The transitional operating process uses disclosed wallets or custodians and governance action for enforcement. It permits borrowed balances and controlled substitution between providers. The Phase 2 design proposal is dated and cannot alone establish what is deployed in October. We did not verify a complete current set of technically enforced on-chain locks and release schedules.

Tradeweb's June 30 filing reports 1.6B total CC and 1.3B restricted from transfer, using rounded quantities. Its 70% commitment applies to lifetime SV rewards, not necessarily 70% of that current total holding. Do not “correct” the disclosed restricted amount by multiplying total holdings by 70%.

Featured-app rules prescribe 5M or 25M CC by app category, permit borrowing and describe a 60-day linear unlock. Counts of apps cannot safely be multiplied by one tier to infer fresh buying or actual network inventory.

Canton Strategic Holdings reports Q2 other revenue of $1,304,633, largely from locking services. This is company-reported revenue, not cash collected, profit, a network total, or an available retail yield. No implied interest rate is calculated without matching committed capital and contract periods.

## Valuation Method

The workbook has two sheets: Token Economics and Sources. Numeric assumptions are editable. It retains original source inputs separately from a hypothetical projection.

The illustration begins with 39.87B reported coins and $0.0983 per coin. Their product is $3.919221B, consistent with the vendor's rounded $3.92B. Using the unrounded product prevents a rounding discrepancy in the flat-cap scenario.

Assumed monthly net issuance of 203.2M for twelve months adds 2.4384B coins, taking the illustrative denominator to 42.3084B. There is no claim that the next twelve months will repeat September. Locked coins remain included; no unknown free-float adjustment is made.

An unchanged market cap gives $0.0926346 per coin, or about −5.8%. A 20% price increase requires a $4.9906989B market value, approximately 27.3% above the starting product. The $6B example implies $0.1418158. Alternative assumed capitalizations are illustrations, not assigned probabilities or fair values.

No direct holder cash-flow model is provided because an automatic passive-holder distribution and its sustainable amount have not been established. The model also excludes trading costs, taxes and income from separately contracted services. It is not a position-sizing recommendation.

## Remaining Gaps and What Would Change the View

- A complete, reproducible 30–90-day all-category mint/burn history, with reward allowances separated from actual minting.
- Evidence distinguishing outside customer funding from reward-funded activity, preferably reconciled through validator or application disclosures as well as ledger totals.
- A current account-level locking register, no double counting, release dates and an explicit distinction between commitment rules and technical enforcement.
- Verified full activation of relevant reward reforms and evidence of their economic effects.
- Repeat institutional usage and measured Global Synchronizer demand after launches, rather than announcements alone.
- Position-specific execution depth and custody checks before a trading decision.

Three public primary Scan hosts returned HTTP 403 to GET /api/scan/v0/dso in this environment. The saved responses identify the hosts, exact request and timestamp. This observation does not prove that Scan is inaccessible to everyone. CCView's API documentation requires an API key. No paid plan, trial, account connection or vendor outreach was initiated.

These limits prevent an audited flow valuation, but do not prevent publishing the documented WATCH thesis with the provisional figures clearly identified. No precise buy level or audited holder yield is claimed.

## Validation

Independent arithmetic agrees with the workbook. Changing market cap changes the token-price result; zero net issuance removes the dilution effect; a missing issuance input returns unavailable. The two-variable table was checked at base and alternative combinations. All temporary inputs were restored. Formula-error scans and visual previews were reviewed. Native Microsoft Excel was not launched, so native Excel recalculation is not independently certified.

The local article preview is tested separately for narrow-screen overflow. Ghost's live theme, final uploaded download URLs, homepage placement and Research-page placement require checks at publication. No external publication has occurred in this task.