ZAMBIA 2026 ELECTION RESEARCH PACK
Version 1.0 | Evidence cut-off: 27 July 2026

CONTENTS
00_Research_Instrument_Index.xlsx
    Master index of 155 executed research instruments, source hierarchy,
    validation register, workbook lineage, research gaps and update protocol.

01_ECZ_2026_Parliamentary_Candidate_Register.xlsx
    Parsed final parliamentary nomination roster and candidate topology.

02_Historical_Turnout_Panel_and_2026_Recalibration.xlsx
    Historical turnout, stronghold comparisons and 2026 turnout calibration.

03_Historical_Transition_Recalibration_10M.xlsx
    Validated historical transition model and 10-million-draw recalibration.

04_Candidate_Level_Bayesian_Monte_Carlo_10M.xlsx
    Candidate-topology, constituency and parliamentary Monte Carlo lineage model.

05_Robust_Bayesian_Monte_Carlo_10M.xlsx
    Canonical joint presidential and parliamentary posterior.

06_Robust_Bayesian_Monte_Carlo_10M_Census_Implemented.xlsx
    Census identity, language-reach and reciprocal-polarisation stress tests.

07_Empirical_Candidate_Policy_ByElection_Overlay.xlsx
    Candidate histories, by-election inference and constituency policy proxy.

08_Central_Lusaka_Full_Empirical_Overlay.xlsx
    Complete 41-candidate and 41-constituency empirical integration for Central and Lusaka.

Zambia_2026_Election_Methodology.docx
    Formal methodology covering data, models, equations, validation,
    interpretation, limitations and reproducibility.

INTERPRETATION
This is a conditional forecasting system. Observed data, estimated relationships,
imputed geography, calibrated priors and scenario assumptions are separately identified.
Administrative delivery evidence is not represented as voter attribution.